Wealthy PotRetirement Withdrawal Calculator
Will your money last? Backtest your retirement withdrawals against every year of real market history since 1871 and see your safe-withdrawal-rate success rate, the numbers behind the 4% rule.
Will your money actually last?
A FIRE number tells you when you can retire. This tells you whether you can stay retired. Enter your portfolio, how much you'll spend each year, how long retirement might last, and your stock/bond mix, the calculator replays your plan against every year of real market history since 1871 and reports how often the money survived. It's the same historical-backtest approach behind the well-known 4% rule.
How to read the result
- Success rate, the share of historical starting years in which your plan never ran out of money. 95%+ is generally considered robust.
- Worst ending balance, how the single worst starting year in history would have turned out. Retiring into 1929 or 1966 is the real stress test, not the average.
- Median vs. worst path, the chart shows a typical outcome against that worst case, both in today's dollars.
Lower the risk
- Use a conservative withdrawal rate, 3.5% or lower is common for very early retirement, since the money may need to last 40–50 years.
- Keep enough in bonds/cash to avoid selling stocks during a crash early on.
- Stay flexible: trimming spending in down years dramatically improves survival. Find your target portfolio first with the FIRE Calculator.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a safe withdrawal rate (SWR)?
The safe withdrawal rate is the percentage of your portfolio you can withdraw in the first year of retirement, then adjust for inflation each year after, with a high chance the money lasts your whole retirement. The famous "4% rule" comes from research showing a 4% starting withdrawal survived almost every 30-year period in U.S. history.
How does this calculator work?
It runs a historical backtest. It takes your portfolio, your annual spending, your retirement length, and your stock/bond mix, then replays that exact plan starting in every year of market history since 1871, using real, inflation-adjusted returns. The success rate is the share of those historical retirements in which your money never ran out.
Are the results in today's dollars?
Yes. All returns are inflation-adjusted (real), and your spending is treated as a constant amount in today's purchasing power. Ending balances are shown in today's dollars too, so nothing is inflated by decades of future price growth.
Why isn't a high success rate a guarantee?
A backtest shows how a plan would have fared in the past, not what the future holds. Sequence-of-returns risk, a bad crash early in retirement, is the real danger, which is why this tool reports the worst historical case, not just the average. Use a conservative withdrawal rate, and treat the result as one input, not a promise.