Social Security COLA 2027: Where the Raise Stands Before the October Announcement

The 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment has not been announced yet. With two of the three months that decide it already published, the inflation data puts it on track for about 3.4%, which would be the largest raise since the 8.7% paid in 2023. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the final input, September's inflation figure, on Wednesday, October 14, 2026, and that is when the Social Security Administration is expected to announce the official COLA. Until then, every number you see for 2027, including ours, is an estimate.

The Short Answer

• Official 2027 COLA: not announced. SSA says it "will announce the next COLA in October 2026."
• Announcement date: BLS publishes September 2026 CPI on October 14, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET. SSA computes the COLA from that release.
• Running illustration: if September's CPI-W simply matches August's level, the COLA works out to 3.4%. That is our arithmetic, not an official figure.
• Trustees' projection: the 2026 Social Security Trustees Report projected 2.7% under its intermediate assumptions. Inflation has run hotter since then.
• When it pays: the raise applies to benefits for December 2026, which arrive in January 2027. SSI recipients get it a day or so earlier, at the end of December.
• For comparison: the 2026 COLA was 2.8%. The full 2026 numbers are on our 2026 COLA page.

Estimate Your 2027 Raise

Enter your current monthly benefit. The COLA slider starts at our 3.4% illustration; move it to test other outcomes, or set it to the official figure once SSA publishes it. The result is before any change in your Medicare premium or tax withholding.

A quick hypothetical: SSA estimates the average retired worker receives $2,071 a month in 2026. A 3.4% COLA would add about $70 a month, taking that check to roughly $2,141. At the Trustees' 2.7%, the raise would be about $56.

Where the 2027 COLA Stands Now

The COLA compares the average CPI-W (the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers) for July, August and September of this year against the same three months of last year. SSA has already published last year's base, and BLS has published two of this year's three months:

Sources: SSA, Latest Cost-of-Living Adjustment (2025 values and the 317.265 base); BLS series CWUR0000SA0 (2026 values).

Both July and August are running about 3.4% to 3.5% above a year earlier. Illustration, not an official figure: if September 2026 comes in exactly at August's 328.481, the third-quarter average is 328.022. That is 3.39% above 317.265, which rounds to a 3.4% COLA.

Most of the pickup is energy. The August CPI release shows the energy index up 16.3% over 12 months, with gasoline up 27.4%, while prices excluding food and energy rose 2.4%. Gas prices can move a lot in a single month, which is why September still matters.

What September Has to Do

Because two months are locked in, you can work backward to the September reading each outcome would need. The table shows our arithmetic for how far September's CPI-W would have to move from August's level:

Wealthy Pot calculation from the SSA base (317.265) and BLS July and August 2026 CPI-W. Hypothetical scenarios; results right at a boundary could round either way.

In plain terms: unless prices fall noticeably in September, the 2027 COLA lands at 3.3% or above. A drop large enough to pull it under 3% would take a one-month decline of roughly 1.3% in the CPI-W, which would be unusual outside a recession or a collapse in oil prices.

How the COLA Is Calculated

The formula is fixed by law in Section 215(i) of the Social Security Act (42 U.S.C. 415(i)). SSA explains it this way: the COLA effective for December equals the percentage increase in the CPI-W from the average for the third quarter of the last year a COLA took effect to the average for the third quarter of the current year. Three details matter:

• It uses CPI-W, not CPI-U. The CPI-W tracks households where more than half of income comes from clerical or wage work, about 30% of the population, according to BLS. It is not designed around retirees' spending.
• Only July, August and September count. Inflation in the other nine months does not enter the formula directly.
• It is rounded to the nearest 0.1%. SSA first rounds each quarterly average to three decimals, then rounds the percentage increase. If there is no increase, there is no COLA, and benefits do not go down. That happened for January 2010, 2011 and 2016.

Here is the official 2026 calculation, which also set the base for 2027: (317.265 minus 308.729) divided by 308.729 equals 2.76%, rounded to 2.8%.

The Trustees' Projection

Each year the Social Security Trustees publish projections for future COLAs. In Table V.C1 of the 2026 Trustees Report, the COLA effective December 2026 (paid January 2027) is projected at:

• 2.7% under the intermediate (best-estimate) assumptions
• 2.9% under the low-cost assumptions
• 2.3% under the high-cost assumptions

These are projections made before most of 2026's inflation data existed. The CPI-W readings published since then run ahead of the intermediate path, so the actual COLA now looks likely to come in above 2.7%. The same table projects 2.4% a year for the COLAs after that, which is a reasonable planning assumption for later years but not a forecast you should count on.

COLA History, 2017 to 2026

Source: SSA, Automatic Cost-Of-Living Adjustments received since 1975. SSA's actuarial table lists the same figures by the December they took effect (for example, "2025: 2.8" is the raise paid in January 2026).

The simple average of these ten raises is about 3.1%, pulled up by the 2022 and 2023 spikes. Without those two years, the typical raise was closer to 2%. A 3.4% COLA for 2027 would be above the recent norm but well below the 8.7% of 2023.

What Else Changes in January

SSA publishes a fact sheet of new figures alongside the COLA. Several are tied to wage growth, not inflation, but they are released the same day. The 2027 values are not published yet. Here is what to watch, with the 2026 figure for reference (details on our 2026 COLA page):

For a rough idea, the Trustees' intermediate projections in Table V.C1 put the 2027 wage base at $190,200 and the earnings-test limits at $25,200 and $67,200. Those are projections; the official numbers depend on the 2025 national average wage index.

What This Means for Your Budget

• Budget on the low side until SSA announces. Planning with 3.3% leaves a small cushion if September comes in soft. Once the official figure is out, use it.
• Watch your Medicare premium. If Part B is deducted from your check, the net raise depends on the 2027 Part B premium, which Medicare sets separately later in the fall. Your COLA notice shows the gross and net amounts.
• Check the tax side. A bigger check can push more of your benefit into taxable income. See how the numbers interact in our 2026 tax brackets guide and the average Social Security check breakdown.
• Remember the COLA compounds. Each raise builds on the last one, so it also lifts future spousal and survivor amounts. If you are coordinating a claim with a husband or wife, read our guide to spousal Social Security benefits.
• Keep the bigger plan in view. A COLA keeps pace with CPI-W, not necessarily with your own costs. Our guides on how much you need to retire and how Social Security changes affect your plan cover the rest.

SSA makes COLA notices available online in late November in the Message Center of a my Social Security account, and mails them to people who have not opted out of paper.

Sources & Methodology

• SSA, Cost-Of-Living Adjustment (COLA) summary: confirms the 2.8% COLA was determined October 24, 2025 and that the next COLA will be announced in October 2026.
• SSA, Latest Cost-of-Living Adjustment: the COLA formula, rounding rules, and the 2024 and 2025 third-quarter CPI-W values, including the 317.265 base.
• Social Security Act, Section 215(i): the statutory COLA provision (42 U.S.C. 415(i)).
• BLS, CPI-W series CWUR0000SA0: July 2026 (327.104) and August 2026 (328.481) index levels, retrieved through the BLS public API.
• BLS, Consumer Price Index, August 2026: CPI-W up 3.5% over 12 months; energy and gasoline changes.
• BLS, CPI release schedule: September 2026 CPI on October 14, 2026, 8:30 a.m. ET.
• 2026 OASDI Trustees Report, Table V.C1: projected COLAs (2.7% intermediate, 2.9% low-cost, 2.3% high-cost for December 2026) and projected 2027 wage base and earnings-test amounts.
• SSA, COLA Information and SSA, COLA history table: COLAs since 1975.
• SSA, 2026 COLA Fact Sheet: 2026 wage base, earnings-test limits, work-credit amount, maximum benefit, SSI rates and average benefits.

Method notes. The running illustration averages the published July and August 2026 CPI-W with an assumed September value equal to August, rounds the average to three decimals as SSA does, and compares it with the official 317.265 base. The September scenario table solves the same formula for the September value at each rounding boundary. All 2027 numbers on this page are illustrations or projections until SSA announces the official COLA.

This article is for general information and is not financial or tax advice. Figures are from the Social Security Administration, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the 2026 Social Security Trustees Report, checked against the primary sources on 2026-10-04. The 2027 COLA had not been announced on that date; your actual benefit change depends on the official COLA, your Medicare premium and your own record.

FAQ

What is the Social Security COLA for 2027?
It has not been announced as of October 4, 2026. Based on July and August CPI-W data, it is tracking near 3.4% if September inflation is flat. SSA will publish the official figure after BLS releases September CPI on October 14, 2026.

When will the 2027 COLA be announced?
BLS releases the September 2026 Consumer Price Index on Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET. SSA computes the COLA from that release and has typically announced it the same day. In 2025 the announcement slipped to October 24 because of the federal funding lapse.

When will I see the 2027 increase?
In your January 2027 payment, which covers December 2026. SSI payments for January are made at the end of December because January 1 is a holiday.

Is the 2027 COLA higher than 2026?
Probably. The 2026 COLA was 2.8%. July and August 2026 CPI-W ran 3.4% and 3.5% above a year earlier, so unless September prices fall sharply, the 2027 COLA should land above 2.8%.

What did the Trustees project for the 2027 COLA?
The 2026 Trustees Report projected 2.7% for the COLA effective December 2026 under its intermediate assumptions, with a range of 2.3% to 2.9% across its high-cost and low-cost scenarios.

How much will my check go up?
Multiply your current gross benefit by the COLA. As a hypothetical, a $2,071 benefit would rise about $70 at 3.4%. Your net deposit also depends on the 2027 Medicare Part B premium, which is set separately.

Can the COLA be zero or negative?
It can be zero, as in 2010, 2011 and 2016, but benefits do not go down. The law only provides an increase when the CPI-W average rises.

Will the wage base and earnings limits change for 2027?
Yes, they are recalculated each year and announced with the COLA. The 2026 values are $184,500 for the wage base and $24,480 and $65,160 for the earnings test. Official 2027 values were not published as of October 4, 2026.

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"Social Security COLA 2027: Where the Raise Stands Before the October Announcement." Wealthy Pot, 2026. https://wealthypot.com/social-security-cola-2027/