Wealthy PotRetirement Calculator
See if you are on track to retire: your savings, an estimate of your Social Security, and your spending, tested against every market period since 1871. Shows what to change if you are short, all in today's dollars.
How to use the retirement calculator
Enter your age, when you want to retire, what you have saved and what you save each year, including any employer match. Then enter what you expect to spend each year in retirement, in today's dollars. The calculator estimates your Social Security from your income, or you can type in the figure from your Social Security statement. It shows whether your money lasts to the age you choose, what you would need at retirement, and, if you are short, how much more to save, how much later to retire or how much less to spend.
Everything is in today's dollars and before tax. Nothing you enter leaves your browser.
How the calculation works
The calculator runs your plan two ways.
- Average returns. Your savings grow at the long-run average real return of the portfolio you choose until you retire. From then on, each year's spending, minus Social Security and any pension, comes out of savings. This gives the "savings at retirement", "needed at retirement" and "money lasts to" figures and the year-by-year table.
- Every market period since 1871. The same plan is replayed through each actual sequence of yearly stock and bond returns in Robert Shiller's data, starting in 1871, then 1872, and so on. The share of those periods in which your money lasts is the headline number. You are "on track" at 90% or more, the same confidence level Fidelity uses for its savings guidelines.
Averages hide the biggest risk in retirement: a crash in the first years, when you are already withdrawing. Someone who retired in 1966 lived through a decade of high inflation and weak markets, and a plan that looks fine on average can fail on that path. The chart shows your plan on the average path and on the worst historical one.
The 4% rule, tested on 153 years of data
A $1,000,000 portfolio paying $40,000 a year (4%), raised with inflation, for 30 years. Share of historical start years in which the money lasted:
| Portfolio | Average real return | 4% withdrawal | 5% withdrawal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% stocks | 6.95% | 97.6% | 80.6% |
| 80% stocks | 6.31% | 97.6% | 79.8% |
| 60% stocks | 5.54% | 96.8% | 75.8% |
| 40% stocks | 4.63% | 94.4% | 60.5% |
Our calculation from Shiller's real returns (124 30-year periods, starting 1871 to 1994). With 60/40 and 4%, the worst start was 1966, when the money ran out at age 90. Social Security and pensions reduce the withdrawal you need, which is why the calculator subtracts them before testing.
Social Security estimates by income
Monthly benefit for a 40-year-old who keeps working until 67 (or 70 for the last column), estimated with the calculator's method, in today's dollars:
| Income today | Claim at 62 | Claim at 67 | Claim at 70 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $40,000 | $1,233 | $1,791 | $2,236 |
| $60,000 | $1,589 | $2,314 | $2,892 |
| $75,000 | $1,855 | $2,707 | $3,384 |
| $100,000 | $2,277 | $3,289 | $4,095 |
| $150,000 | $2,694 | $3,902 | $4,864 |
| $200,000 | $3,020 | $4,357 | $5,416 |
Claiming at 62 cuts the full benefit by 30% for anyone born in 1960 or later, and each year of waiting after 67 adds 8%, up to 70. The formula replaces a larger share of low pay than of high pay, so benefits rise more slowly than income. For comparison, the most anyone reaching full retirement age in 2026 can get is $4,152 a month (SSA's example of a worker who earned the taxable maximum every year); estimates for younger workers can come out higher because they use the 2026 formula and taxable maximum for every future year of work. For your own claiming decision, use our Social Security break-even calculator.
How much should you have saved by now?
| Age | Fidelity guideline | On a $75,000 salary |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | 1x your salary | $75,000 |
| 40 | 3x your salary | $225,000 |
| 50 | 6x your salary | $450,000 |
| 60 | 8x your salary | $600,000 |
| 67 | 10x your salary | $750,000 |
Fidelity's milestones assume you save 15% of your pay from age 25, invest mostly in stocks, retire at 67 and want to keep your lifestyle. They are aspirational and say nothing about your own spending, which is why the calculator starts from your numbers. Compare yourself with real households in average retirement savings by age.
Ways to close a gap
- Save more, early. In 2026 you can put up to $24,500 into a 401(k), plus $8,000 from age 50 or $11,250 at ages 60 to 63, and $7,500 into an IRA ($8,600 from 50). See the 401(k) calculator and the Roth IRA calculator.
- Work a little longer. Each extra year adds a year of saving and growth and removes a year of withdrawals.
- Delay Social Security. A larger lifelong, inflation-adjusted payment lowers what your savings must cover.
- Spend less in retirement. Test a withdrawal plan directly in the retirement withdrawal calculator, or plan an early exit with the FIRE calculator.
What this calculator leaves out
- Taxes. Spending is before tax; include the tax on withdrawals in it.
- Health care before Medicare. If you retire before 65, add insurance premiums to your spending. See health care costs in retirement.
- Social Security before you stop working. Benefits count only from your retirement age, so working while collecting is not modelled.
- Fees and a changing mix. Returns are before fund fees, and the stock share stays fixed; most target-date funds move toward bonds with age.
- A spouse. For a couple, enter combined savings, saving and spending, and add the second Social Security benefit as a pension.
About the data
Returns: Robert J. Shiller, "Irrational Exuberance" data (S&P Composite real total return and 10-year Treasury real total return, 1871-2023). Social Security: 2026 benefit formula and taxable maximum (Social Security Administration), Quick Calculator method (SSA), early and delayed claiming rules (20 CFR 404.410 and 404.313), and the 2026 Trustees Report. Savings milestones: Fidelity Viewpoints. Replacement-rate range: GAO-16-242. Life expectancy: SSA period life table 2023, as used in the 2026 Trustees Report. Results are estimates for general information, not financial advice; past market returns do not guarantee future results.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much do I need to retire?
Enough that your savings cover the gap between what you spend and what Social Security and any pension pay, for as long as you might live. Fidelity's rule of thumb is about 10 times your pre-retirement salary by 67, with milestones of 1x by 30, 3x by 40, 6x by 50 and 8x by 60. This calculator works it out from your own numbers instead of a multiple.
What does "on track" mean here?
That your savings last until the age you choose in at least 90% of the historical market periods since 1871. A plan that only works with average returns can still fail if a crash comes early in retirement, so we test it against every real sequence of stock and bond returns we have.
How is my Social Security estimated?
With the method of the Social Security Administration's Quick Calculator: we assume you have worked since 22 at your current pay level, with earlier years 2% a year lower, cap each year at the $184,500 taxable maximum, average your highest 35 years and apply the 2026 benefit formula (90% of the first $1,286 of average monthly earnings, 32% up to $7,749, 15% above), then reduce or increase it for your claiming age. It is a rough estimate; your Social Security statement at ssa.gov/myaccount has your real figure.
Will Social Security still be there?
The 2026 Trustees Report projects that the retirement trust fund can pay 100% of scheduled benefits until late 2032, and about 78% after that if Congress does not act. Payroll taxes keep coming in, so benefits would be cut, not stopped. Choose "Cut to 78% from 2033" to plan for that.
Why is everything in today's dollars?
Because the return figures are after inflation. A result of $1 million means $1 million of today's buying power, which is easier to compare with your current spending than a future amount inflated by decades of price rises.
What return should I expect?
From 1871 to 2023, after inflation, a portfolio of 100% US stocks returned 6.95% a year on average, 80/20 6.31%, 60/40 5.54% and 40/60 4.63% (S&P 500 and 10-year Treasuries, rebalanced yearly). The future can be better or worse, which is why the calculator also shows the worst historical case.
Does the calculator include taxes?
No. Enter your spending before tax: if you will pay income tax on 401(k) or IRA withdrawals, include it in the spending figure. Roth withdrawals and part of your Social Security may be tax-free, so the right gross-up depends on your accounts.
How long should I plan for?
Longer than the average. In the Social Security Administration's latest period life table, a 65-year-old man lives 18.1 more years on average and a woman 20.7, but about 24% of men and 35% of women who reach 65 live to 90. Planning to 95 covers most people.
