Bull and Bear Markets: Every S&P 500 Cycle Since 1946, With a Chart and Recovery Times
The stock market moves in long rises and shorter, sharper falls. A bear market is usually defined as a fall of 20% or more from a recent high, and a bull market as a rise of 20% or more from a low. By that rule, the S&P 500 has had 15 bear markets since 1946. They lasted about 11 months on average and took the index down about 32%. The bull markets between them lasted about four and a half years and gained an average of 155%. Below is every one, with dates, size and length, calculated from the index's daily closing prices.
The Short Answer
- Since 1946 the S&P 500 has had 15 bear markets. The average one fell 31.6% and lasted 11 months; the median fell 28.5%.
- Bull markets last much longer. The 14 completed bull markets since 1946 averaged a gain of 155% over 54 months. The longest ran almost 11 years, from March 2009 to February 2020, and gained 400%.
- The market spent about 17% of the time in bear markets since May 1946, and 83% in bull markets.
- Getting back to the old high takes longer than the fall. From the bottom, the index needed a median of 15 months to regain its previous peak, and up to almost six years (1974 to 1980).
- The latest bear market ran from January 3 to October 12, 2022 (−25.4%). The bull market that followed was up 114% by October 22, 2026.
- Nobody can reliably call the turns. Four declines since 1990 stopped just short of 20%, and two bear markets ended within weeks of starting.
Market Cycle Chart
S&P 500 since 1946, bear markets shaded
Month-end close, log scale (each gridline is 10 times the one below), price only
Shaded: the 15 bear markets in the table below, peak to low. Our chart from S&P 500 daily closes through October 22, 2026.
On a log scale the same percentage move looks the same size in 1950 and in 2020, so the falls can be compared fairly. The shaded strips are short next to the rises between them, and most are thin: the falls are fast and the recoveries long.
How Bull and Bear Markets Are Defined
There is no official body that declares a bear market. The SEC's investor site describes one as a time when "a broad market index falls by 20% or more over at least a two-month period", and a bull market as a rise of 20% or more. Most market historians use the same 20% line but measure it from closing prices, without a minimum length, which is why the 33-day crash of 2020 counts as a bear market.
For the table below we used that common rule: a bear market starts at a closing high that is followed by a fall of at least 20%, and ends at the lowest close before the index rises 20% from it. A bull market runs from that low to the next peak that comes before a 20% fall. A fall of 10% to 20% is usually called a correction.
Every Bull and Bear Market Since 1946
| Market | Start | End | S&P 500 change | Months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | May 29, 1946 | May 19, 1947 | −28.5% | 12 |
| Bull | May 19, 1947 | Jun 15, 1948 | +23.9% | 13 |
| Bear | Jun 15, 1948 | Jun 13, 1949 | −20.6% | 12 |
| Bull | Jun 13, 1949 | Aug 2, 1956 | +266.3% | 86 |
| Bear | Aug 2, 1956 | Oct 22, 1957 | −21.5% | 15 |
| Bull | Oct 22, 1957 | Dec 12, 1961 | +86.4% | 50 |
| Bear | Dec 12, 1961 | Jun 26, 1962 | −28.0% | 6 |
| Bull | Jun 26, 1962 | Feb 9, 1966 | +79.8% | 44 |
| Bear | Feb 9, 1966 | Oct 7, 1966 | −22.2% | 8 |
| Bull | Oct 7, 1966 | Nov 29, 1968 | +48.0% | 26 |
| Bear | Nov 29, 1968 | May 26, 1970 | −36.1% | 18 |
| Bull | May 26, 1970 | Jan 11, 1973 | +73.5% | 32 |
| Bear | Jan 11, 1973 | Oct 3, 1974 | −48.2% | 21 |
| Bull | Oct 3, 1974 | Nov 28, 1980 | +125.6% | 74 |
| Bear | Nov 28, 1980 | Aug 12, 1982 | −27.1% | 20 |
| Bull | Aug 12, 1982 | Aug 25, 1987 | +228.8% | 60 |
| Bear | Aug 25, 1987 | Dec 4, 1987 | −33.5% | 3 |
| Bull | Dec 4, 1987 | Mar 24, 2000 | +582.1% | 148 |
| Bear | Mar 24, 2000 | Sep 21, 2001 | −36.8% | 18 |
| Bull | Sep 21, 2001 | Jan 4, 2002 | +21.4% | 3 |
| Bear | Jan 4, 2002 | Jul 23, 2002 | −32.0% | 7 |
| Bull | Jul 23, 2002 | Oct 9, 2007 | +96.2% | 63 |
| Bear | Oct 9, 2007 | Nov 20, 2008 | −51.9% | 13 |
| Bull | Nov 20, 2008 | Jan 6, 2009 | +24.2% | 2 |
| Bear | Jan 6, 2009 | Mar 9, 2009 | −27.6% | 2 |
| Bull | Mar 9, 2009 | Feb 19, 2020 | +400.5% | 131 |
| Bear | Feb 19, 2020 | Mar 23, 2020 | −33.9% | 1 |
| Bull | Mar 23, 2020 | Jan 3, 2022 | +114.4% | 21 |
| Bear | Jan 3, 2022 | Oct 12, 2022 | −25.4% | 9 |
| Bull (ongoing) | Oct 12, 2022 | Oct 22, 2026 (latest close) | +114.2% | 48 |
Two lines in the table are often merged in other lists. From March 2000 to October 2002 the S&P 500 fell 49.1% in total, and from October 2007 to March 2009 it fell 56.8%. In both cases the index bounced more than 20% partway down, which by the strict rule ends one bear market and starts another. The short rallies of late 2001 and late 2008 show how easy it is to mistake a bounce for a recovery.
Averages: How Long and How Far
| Since 1946 | Bear markets (15) | Bull markets (14 completed) |
|---|---|---|
| Average change | −31.6% | +155.1% |
| Median change | −28.5% | +91.3% |
| Average length | 11.0 months | 53.7 months |
| Median length | 11.7 months | 46.6 months |
| Deepest or biggest | −51.9% (Oct 2007 to Nov 2008) | +582.1% (Dec 1987 to Mar 2000) |
Before 1946 the market was far more violent. Between the September 1929 peak and the June 1932 low, the index lost 86.2% of its value, and our rule counts 12 separate bear markets from 1929 to 1942 as it lurched up and down. That era, with no deposit insurance and a banking collapse, is why the averages above start after the Second World War.
How Long Recovery Takes
The end of a bear market is the low, not the recovery. To get back to where it was, the index has to climb back to its old peak, and that usually takes longer than the fall itself. The table measures it with the same daily closes.
| Bear market | Fall | Back to the old high | Months from low | Months from peak | 1 year after the low | 5 years after the low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1946 to May 1947 | −28.5% | Jun 9, 1950 | 37 | 48 | +18.9% | +71.5% |
| Jun 1948 to Jun 1949 | −20.6% | Jan 9, 1950 | 7 | 19 | +42.1% | +111.2% |
| Aug 1956 to Oct 1957 | −21.5% | Sep 24, 1958 | 11 | 26 | +31.0% | +41.0% |
| Dec 1961 to Jun 1962 | −28.0% | Sep 3, 1963 | 14 | 21 | +32.7% | +75.2% |
| Feb 1966 to Oct 1966 | −22.2% | May 4, 1967 | 7 | 15 | +33.2% | +36.6% |
| Nov 1968 to May 1970 | −36.1% | Mar 6, 1972 | 21 | 39 | +43.7% | +30.4% |
| Jan 1973 to Oct 1974 | −48.2% | Jul 17, 1980 | 70 | 90 | +38.0% | +76.0% |
| Nov 1980 to Aug 1982 | −27.1% | Nov 3, 1982 | 3 | 23 | +58.3% | +224.5% |
| Aug 1987 to Dec 1987 | −33.5% | Jul 26, 1989 | 20 | 23 | +22.8% | +93.0% |
| Mar 2000 to Sep 2001 | −36.8% | May 30, 2007 | 68 | 86 | −13.7% | +36.5% |
| Jan 2002 to Jul 2002 | −32.0% | Nov 11, 2004 | 28 | 34 | +23.9% | +93.3% |
| Oct 2007 to Nov 2008 | −51.9% | Mar 28, 2013 | 52 | 66 | +45.0% | +136.7% |
| Jan 2009 to Mar 2009 | −27.6% | Jun 1, 2009 | 3 | 5 | +68.6% | +177.5% |
| Feb 2020 to Mar 2020 | −33.9% | Aug 18, 2020 | 5 | 6 | +74.8% | +157.8% |
| Jan 2022 to Oct 2022 | −25.4% | Jan 19, 2024 | 15 | 24 | +21.6% | not yet |
- From the low: a median of 15 months back to the old high, an average of 24. The fastest were 3 months (1982 and 2009); the slowest almost six years (1974 to 1980) and 68 months (2001 to 2007).
- From the peak: a median of about two years (24.5 months) from the old high back to it, an average of 35 months.
- A year after the low the index was higher in 14 of 15 cases, by a median of 33%. The exception was September 2001, which was followed by a second bear market in 2002.
- Five years after the low it was higher in all 14 cases with five years of data, by 30% to 225%.
The two longest recoveries came after the deepest falls in prices that had become expensive (1973, after the "Nifty Fifty" years, and 2000, after the dot-com boom). Someone who had to sell in either of those stretches locked in the loss for good.
Corrections That Almost Became Bear Markets
| Peak | Low | Decline |
|---|---|---|
| July 16, 1990 | Oct 11, 1990 | −19.9% |
| July 17, 1998 | Aug 31, 1998 | −19.3% |
| Apr 29, 2011 | Oct 3, 2011 | −19.4% |
| Sept 20, 2018 | Dec 24, 2018 | −19.8% |
The 20% line is a convention, not a law of nature. Investors who sold in December 2018 because "a bear market is coming" missed a rebound of about 37% over the next 12 months.
The Phases of a Market Cycle
Cycles are often described in four phases. They are easy to label afterwards and hard to spot while they happen.
- Recovery: prices rise from the low while the news is still bad, which is why the turn is so easy to miss.
- Expansion: earnings grow and confidence returns. This is the longest phase.
- Peak: valuations are high and optimism is widespread. Measures such as the price-to-earnings ratio are high, and they can stay high for years.
- Decline: prices fall, sometimes with a recession, sometimes without one. The 1987 crash happened with no recession at all.
How to Invest Through a Bear Market
Fifteen bear markets in 80 years is roughly one every five to six years, so anyone investing for decades will live through several. What helps is mostly decided before one starts.
- Keep near-term money out of stocks. Cash you will need within a few years, including an emergency fund, belongs in savings or short-term bonds. Recoveries in the table took up to seven and a half years from the peak, and a forced sale at the low is how a temporary fall becomes a permanent loss.
- Hold a mix you can live with. If a 30% to 50% drop in your stocks would make you sell, you hold too much in stocks for your timeline. See asset allocation and bonds vs. stocks for how a mix behaved in past falls.
- Keep investing on schedule. Regular 401(k) or IRA contributions buy more shares while prices are low; see dollar-cost averaging.
- Rebalance instead of reacting. Bringing your mix back to target after a fall means buying stocks when they are cheaper; see when to rebalance.
- Do not try to time the bottom. The shortest bear markets lasted one to three months, and the year after the low was often the strongest of the cycle. Selling to "wait it out" risks missing the rebound, as investors who sold in December 2018 did.
- Use losses in taxable accounts. Selling an investment at a loss can offset capital gains, and up to $3,000 a year of net loss ($1,500 if married filing separately) can offset other income, with the rest carried forward (IRS Topic 409). Under the wash sale rule the loss is disallowed if you buy substantially identical stock or securities within 30 days before or after the sale, including in your IRA (IRS Publication 550).
- Check costs and spread. A broad, low-cost index fund holds hundreds of companies, so it recovers with the market rather than depending on a few stocks that may never come back. See ETFs explained; portfolio trackers show your own allocation and how far it has drifted.
Near retirement the risk changes: withdrawing from a fallen portfolio sells more shares at low prices. A cash or bond reserve for a few years of spending, and a withdrawal rate you can cut in bad years, are the usual defences.
FAQ
How long do bear markets last on average?
About 11 months for the S&P 500 since 1946, by the 20% closing-price rule. The shortest was 33 days in 2020 (February 19 to March 23); the longest since 1946 ran almost 21 months, from January 1973 to October 1974.
How long do bull markets last?
About 54 months on average since 1946, with a median near 47 months. The longest ran from March 9, 2009 to February 19, 2020.
How many bear markets have there been?
Fifteen since May 1946 by the strict 20% rule, and 27 since 1928 including the many swings of the 1929 to 1942 period.
Are we in a bull or bear market now?
As of October 22, 2026, the S&P 500 was in a bull market that began on October 12, 2022, up 114% from that low and about 2% below its record close of October 6, 2026.
How long does it take the stock market to recover from a bear market?
Since 1946 the S&P 500 took a median of 15 months from its low to get back to the previous peak (price only), and about two years counting from the peak. The range was 3 months (1982, 2009) to almost six years (October 1974 to July 1980).
What should I do in a bear market?
Keep money you need soon out of stocks, keep contributing, rebalance back to your target mix, and avoid selling after the fall. In a taxable account, losses can offset gains and up to $3,000 of other income a year, subject to the 30-day wash sale rule.
Does a bear market mean a recession?
Not always. Some bear markets came with recessions (2007 to 2009, 2020); others did not (1987). Recessions are dated separately by the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Sources
- S&P Dow Jones Indices, S&P 500: index owner. Daily closing values 1927-2026 (symbol ^GSPC) as distributed by Yahoo Finance, read October 23, 2026. Every date, percentage and length on this page is our calculation from those closes.
- SEC Investor.gov, Bear Market and Bull Market definitions
This article is for general information and is not investment advice. Index figures exclude dividends, fees and taxes; past market cycles do not predict future ones. Figures calculated and checked on 2026-10-23.
